In the handicapping process, it’s very important to get a good handle on a team’s emotional state. Looking for an edge in one team’s emotional readiness over another teams is a very useful tool. A good example of this was a play we used last week – Texas A&M over SMU. The Aggies were coming off a bye week and the Mustangs were fresh off their huge emotional win over rival TCU. The Aggies had lost a tough last second game on the road to Clemson. They had made key mistakes that derailed a potential victory. They had a week to stew and correct their mistakes. Coach Franchionne vowed the Aggies would clean up their act. SMU on the other hand were giddy over their win against the Horned Frogs, avenging a 44-0 beating the year before. They had basically emptied their bucket and had a tough time getting ready for A&M. The Aggies were quickly installed a 28 point favorite. Some bettors reacted to the solid SMU performance the week before and bet the line down to 27, incorrectly thinking that SMU was now good enough to hang with the Aggies. This was a lay up as the Aggies, looking for their first win after a bye week, were not going to be going through the motions. This game was a trainwreck situation for SMU, as not only was A&M ready to blow them out, SMU was satisfied with their good game from the week before and were not emotionally ready to compete the following week. Also, SMU’s big win had the Aggies paying attention on even more than they usually would against a much weaker SMU club. The result of all of these forces coming together was a 66-8 beating and an easy cover. This is a great starting point in the handicapping process and can put you on the right side of these emotionally predetermined outcomes.

This weeks selection

Mississippi -2 ½ over Wyoming

Speaking of emotion, the Ole Miss Rebels have a big edge over the Cowboys from Wyoming who visit Oxford this weekend. There is the revenge factor from last year as the Rebels traveled to Laramie and went home with a 37-32 loss. A flat performance, but they still ended up gaining 180 more yards and had 10 more first downs than the Cowboys. 5 turnovers, however, ended up costing them the game. Wyoming on the other hand is coming off an emotionally draining 29-28 conference win at Air Force, and this game is sandwiched between their home opener next week. Also, you need to factor in that this is Ole Miss’ first game at home under new coach Ed Orgeron. The state of Mississippi, ravaged from Hurricane Katrina, will get behind the Rebels and the emotion will carry Ole Miss to a comfortable victory. The Rebels have the emotional advantage to be sure, but also the physical talent and coaching to get the job done. Ole Miss -2 ½